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CNBC
Jun 19, 2013 3:00pm EDT
support is necessary. if the economy does not improve along the lines that we expect, we'll provide additional support. if financial conditions evolve in a way that's inconsistent with economic recovery, we will provide support. but we're -- and in that way, we hope to increase confidence both among market participants, but also among investors and private consumers and other people in the economy. but again, your point is well taken that we are in a position where the simple adjustment by 25 basis points in the federal funds rate seems like a long-ago experience. and we are in a more complex type of situation. but we are determined to be as clear as we can, and we hope that you and your listeners and the markets will all be able to follow what we're saying. >> we'll go to donna and then go to peter. >> donna boreack with american banker. next month will be the anniversary of the dodd-franken act. can you provide us an update on where we stand with the rule makings and, also, are you still optimistic we will see the rules completed by the end of this year? >> it's certainly true tha
CNBC
Jun 20, 2013 1:00pm EDT
of the monetary stimulus out of the equation if the economy is getting better. and he says, the economy is showing signs of getting better and we think by year end and into 2014, it's going to be better still. so we anticipate being able to take away some of the scaffolding around this building and let it see whether it can stand on its own two feet. why is that bad news? why are commodities, stocks and bonds selling off on what, really, you could interpret as good news? >> i think it really isn't bad news, and i do think that much of what chairman bernanke said yesterday was in line with market expectations, but it clearly wasn't in line with investor positioning. so people are selling because they had a different expectation of where the fed was going to be. we now have a situation where there is some concern coming out of the markets, are the feds going to move too soon? i think that's unlikely. inflation continues to fall, so we're in a disinflationary environment. i think the feds' investments on employment are probably accurate, so i think as we look at the second half of the year, positions
CNBC
Jun 21, 2013 7:00pm EDT
point. the economy is soft, inflation virtually non-existent and i'm just going to add why risk deflation when we barely have a recovery at all? one major consequence of the bernanke policy of ending bond purchases is the big jump in interest rates and that, in turn, changes stock market valuations and that is one big reason for the large correction in stocks this week. no one can foretell the future. least of all, me. but let me just ask a couple of questions here. have treasury rates completely discounted an end to qe, okay? i don't think they have. here's my fear. i'm just going to say this. if you play this out, the ten-year treasury ought to be the same as the growth of total spending or nominal gdp in the economy and that's 3.5%, maybe 4%. we're at 2.5% on the treasury. in other words, in the last year we'll be looking at rates going to 4% in treasurys and i don't think that's in the market yet. now, also, will both stocks and bonds play cat and mouse with the fed? every day, every week, every month for the next couple of months. that's going to be a tough one. since i don
CNBC
Jun 20, 2013 4:00am EDT
the fedotenko start scaling back its bond buying program at the end of the year if the economy continues to improve. his comments at the meeting shook the stock and bond market. it's greater optimism. the unemployment could drop to 6 point phone 5% in 2014. that's a year earlier than previously thought. they're still not concerned about inflation and think gdp might expand faster than 3% over the next two years. bernanke tried to draw a distinct line between tapering and the end of qe 2. >> the most important thing that i just want to convey again is that it's important not to say this date, that date, this time. it's important to understand our policies are economic dependent. >>> so coming from the fed. equities sold off in the united states. you can see here just about 35, 40 stocks on the dow jones 500. ftse up 1 2/3. the pmi number. basic resources are the biggest seller. that comes off with china, hsbc pmi down at a nine-month low. new orders down. we're getting more on that from munich. the market reaction, this means commodities are weaker as well to date. spot gold down 3% this
CNBC
Jun 16, 2013 7:30pm EDT
contributes to gdp and makes up more than two-thirds of the u.s. economy. america is on track with the smallest deficit for five years. the -- a fall of more than 25%. a reason standard and poor's raised the credit rating from negative to stable. a the software will he easier photo sharing and it's siri voice activation software. >> the dow losing streak, bond yields rising, worries about the federal reserve. what to do, stand pat? joining me right now, the chief investment officer, and jason, chief investment officer. thank you so much. so, rebecca, not like their there was change in sentiment this week. now we know the fed is going to stop at some point, but really, really volatile markets. up 200, down 200, then a big bounceback on thursday. were you surprised? >> a little bit. we all knew the day would come butl the quantitative easing, the monetary policy in the u.s. and europe and japan, something there's no precedent for. so we knew there would be some sort of market reaction when the tone started to change, but this is bigger than most people expected. >> what does the
CNBC
Jun 19, 2013 4:00pm EDT
the downside risks to the economies have diminished. that's certainly good news. the economy is improving. then they went on to say, mr. bernanke reiterated, the fed may taper bond purchases at the end of the year and finish by mid-2014. that was a little more flesh on the bones of their plan there. that was the important part of that. stocks and bonds dropped on that. the dow jones industrials average. we have ended at the lows of the day, down about 200 points in the dow. that started dropping -- even though we were down before 2:00, the slide accelerated as mr. bernanke began speaking at 2:30 on the press conference. bonds took it on the chin. take a look at the agg. this is the bond etf, the largest one that's out there. that's an aggregate of the total bond market. this is now essentially sitting at a two-year low. let's move on. low inflation, not great necessarily. for gold. gold took it on the chin as well. take a look at gold. gold is also closing right near two-year lows. these are intraday charts. but gold is near a two-year low right now. other commodities dropped as well toda
CNBC
Jun 21, 2013 4:00pm EDT
suggest that the economy's doing better. if we continue to escalate a lot higher, like we have been -- i mean, we're up 87 bips on the 10-year in a month and a halftime. if we continue with that pace, that's what will cause the volatility, i think you want to use the volatility to pick out long-term themes -- in housing, aerospace, the industrials, and even start to look at the defensive stocks as they come down. >> rebecca, part of the issue for the markets has been currencies, has been credit, obviously. i mean, the dollar soaring against all currencies, right? euro, brazil, across the board. >> i think the dollar is likely to stay strong. the u.s. interest rate trend, i think, is going to be with us for a while. maybe not 30 years like falling interest rates were. but it could be for a couple of years. and so, if we're in that environment where you have rising interest rates, a stronger dollar, weaker commodity prices, when you think about the u.s. stocks you want to own, you want to think about names that are going to do well in a strong dollar, weak commodity environment. there are
CNBC
Jun 18, 2013 7:00pm EDT
today, and roughly 2% under performing economy, there's just no reason for interest rates to jump higher. the u.s., by the way, is really the only global stock market game in town. our companies are profitable. so at these levels it may not be roaring bullish. i don't think the fed is going to taper down tomorrow, and i do believe the bull market is far from over. that's my take. let's welcome kenneth heed ner. and i'm joined by george gilder. he has the book "knowledge is power." ken, what say you? >> i say that we have a number of years of growth ahead of us in the economy. it's growing at 2%. it's going to accelerate as consumer confidence rises with rising housing prices. we'll see 3, 4, 5% growth rate. >> 3, 4, 5%, those are big numbers. you had an okay housing number today but housing starts are up 29% on year. here's my inflation point. the year-to-year cpi, 1.4%. guys like me two years ago worry about inflation, money printing, i was wrong. i said that before. the best set indicator, 1.0%. without inflation, why should inflation rates have to go higher? >> they go a little bit hi
CNBC
Jun 19, 2013 5:00pm EDT
all ben bernanke is saying is that our economy is out of critical care and needs to start walking under its own power. with all the cash on side lines i still see a day like today as a buy on the dip. that's been the mentality until now. we shall see if our economy is getting better. that will do it for closing bell. thanks for joining me. i'll see you tomorrow. fast money begins right now. >> life in the nasdaq market site in new york city i'm melissa lee. taper games. the market having its worst fed day since september 2011, the dow dropping 206 points and the ten year yield surging to a one year high. also suggests a possible taper scenario still ahead this year. everyone wants to know what is the trade you put on right now. josh, kick it off. >> right now i would continue to do what i've been doing since we talked about this going an on going correction. only high conviction names. it wouldn't shock me. you typically get one a year. this is a very interesting day in that the staples got crushed and the best performing sectors were energy and the materials names. both sectors d
CNBC
Jun 19, 2013 7:00pm EDT
not be until december or early next year. third point, the u.s. economy's still only growing sluggishly, only 2% growth. just about 1% inflation. modest profits. falling gold. and a steady king dollar. interest rates in my view are not going to skyrocket. there's more money to be made in stocks. the second half is going to be a slower slog than the first half. okay? that's my take on the story. here now we bring in former federal reserve governor frederick mishkin, currently an economics professor at columbia university. welcome back, rick. i just want to ask you, this is a very complicated news conference and a lot of people are saying many different things. first of all, let me ask you if i have the story right. i heard the news conference. the fed will slow down bond purchases toward the end of the year. is that what bernanke said? >> i think what they're trying to do, they've been very concerned, i'm sure, about all the volatility in the markets. and they want to make sure that people understand that in fact they are going to get out of this purchase program, which raises a lot of complicat
CNBC
Jun 21, 2013 6:00am EDT
what he said? valuations are attractive still. businesses are doing well. the economy is strengthening. get this. he says even with $20 billion, he opportunity have enough money to take advantage of all the opportunities here. >> 20. it's not all his. >> he says he's not looking at this point like, look, maybe the rate of the market has slowed down. we're not talking about three year doubles at this point. he says for his funds he's looking more five or six years for doubling. maybe nine or ten for the market. still talking about a very strong market and a place he sees great opportunity. >> these are times you try to keep your cool. >> got to have some powder. got to have dry powder. >> i wish we had all the guys looking for -- if they were to come on and say no, no, no, i'd feel better. they're never able to pull the trigger. want to go overseas? >> i think we should. for a moment. >> take us there. >> i hear this whole thing in china is kind of just not just ben bernanke creating some problems. let's talk about trading in asia and europe today. ross westgate standing by in london. f
CNBC
Jun 20, 2013 7:00pm EDT
base metals, indication of a slower global economy. commodity stocks, of course, they get hit when the dollar rises, 3%, 4% declines. they've been down 15% in the last six weeks here. let's move on here. there was no place to hide. it didn't matter. consumer staple stocks down 3%. utilities were down 3%. consumer discretionary defense care is not defensive. there wasn't any place to hide. i just want to note, larry, the s&p 500 down 5% from its historic high just about a month ago, but it's still up almost 12% on the year. bear that in mind, i want to know we're already getting deals cancelled and we had one secondary canceled tonight and brookfield renewable energy and they own wind mills and natural gas-fired power plants and they canceled late tonight due to what they call market conditions and the slide to the downside. larry, right now the futures are pretty much unchanged and we'll have it open tomorrow with a lot of trading and it will be the options exploration. after that, a lot of people here are hoping for a relatively smooth day, but nobody knows for sure. back to you.
CNBC
Jun 20, 2013 6:00am EDT
this year. if they remain broadly aligned with our current expectations for the economy, we will continue to reduce the pace of purchases in measured steps through the first half of next year ending purchases around mid year. >> the bonds finished in the red as the blue chip index showed its seventh straight move. all the main s&p sectors closed lowers. the worst performers were defensive sectors. telecons. this is what people had been warning us, look out for those stocks that act more like bonds. that's exactly what happened yesterday. the yield on the ten year treasury, it hit a 15-month high if you take a look at that. 2.426%. this is a concerning move. this morning the dow futures are indicated down triple digits once again. this is on top of a 200 point plus drop yesterday. it doesn't look like there's going to be a quick bounce back, at least not this morning. >> we have a number of newsmakers to help us make our way through all of this, get through these questions raised by the fed bank. including alfred broaddus and former minneapolis fed. we have john stumpf. cisco is going to h
CNBC
Jun 20, 2013 3:00pm EDT
-changer? the economy getting better? >> think investors don't believe what bernanke is telling us. that the economy is stronger. and that it is a lack of confidence in the economy's ability a to stand on its two feet without all of this liquidity. >> and do you think this is old-fashioned profit taking? we've had good gains for 2013. we've had good gains for last four years. is it time to take something off the table for that reason. >> think i so. and a couple dayes with twloost days of run up with the announcement yesterday was short-covering. so i think you have people on the shore wagon as well. i think it is a combination of profits and the move down today. >> have you a triple witch tomorrow right? expiration coming tomorrow. how does that impact things? >> i think that exaggerates the moods. usually you see a lot of activity and volume and movement. and what we have seen the last few days is a heavy down days. i think the on coming combination exaggerate the move and puts pressure in that direction of the movement in this case down and exaggerate this move. not quite a bit but, significantly
CNBC
Jun 19, 2013 1:00pm EDT
consequential meeting for markets and the federal reserve in terms of guiding markets and guiding the economy on policy here. i want to give you some tips that i think is a way to listen to bernanke today. i think you want to watch the forecast, the 2.6% gdp growth, the average for 2013 and the 7.4% unemployment rate. those could both come down here. unemployment could actually go either way, but i think it might come down here. watch the tapering guidance of the the market bet is that there is not a taper at this meeting, but bernanke could lay the groundwork for september or sooner. rates versus qe. listen to the chairman try to talk. we expect this, that he'll start to say, you know what, bernanke could strive to convince the markets that tapering does not mean a rate hike, and finally i would expect the third degree on the third term. expect many questions on whether bernanke wants to stay or if, you know, he's been fired. one thing i want to show you is the ten-year. we'll be asking the fed chairman about traits and whether the rise in rates is something that the fed wants to have happen
CNBC
Jun 20, 2013 5:00pm EDT
the economy improves. so we were buying stock today that if the economy improves that's where i want to be like a macy's. with the volatility index spike is as high and hard as it did i sold some of our mdny puts. >> you're telling me you believe ben bernanke forecasting of the improving economy when you look at the world over -- >> if it doesn't improve he's not going to taper. >> then you'll still have qe. isn't that the condition under which stocks rose? >> yes but it seems to me that growth is decelerating significantly and i don't know how the fed can stand here and say that things are going to look better in the second half. >> i'm saying if they don't they're not going to taper. so i think that this reaction is not surprising that there was a very significant reaction. but i think it's a little bit overdone. >> guy? >> hi there. technical damage in the market is there. karen mentioned may 2 for different reasons on may 22 we saw an outside day in the s&p. we've discussed it at length since. the low today was 1608. remember that number. earlier this week we made a high of 1654.
CNBC
Jun 19, 2013 9:00am EDT
mean for commerce and economy. >>> and now a backing off of a bid for sprint by dish, and they will concentrate on clearwire. >>> and also, a look at icahn stepping up dell bid. >>> and now the fed is wrapping up the two-day policy meeting this afternoon. investors hoping that fed will provide clarity about how and when the fed will wind down the bond buying program. make sure to watch the statement, and ben bernanke's news conference which is i perhaps more important, and it starts at 2:00 p.m., and one way or another, it is going to be nice to get something out of the way, wouldn't it? >> yes, i used to regard these events as big bad events when i worked at the hedge fund, because there could be relief even if he says the wrong thing and i'd love for him to address the 10-year, because it signals that the e kconomy is better, b it is not just weak. but if you address the 10-year, i'm in control and the bond vigilantes are not. i believe when this is over, we will come back and discuss -- i'm not kidding -- stocks. >> although, is it possible that the language that h
CNBC
Jun 21, 2013 1:00pm EDT
't think the economy is that strong yet. that would be another conversation on the line, but i think the interest rate -- the jump in interest rates is more once again of a knee jerk reaction. >> do you agree with that, because it does feel as though we're kind of at an infliction point in terms of rates, and this has been a really big backup this week in rates even though we're still at historically low levels. >> as much as i love kenny, i disagree with the big guy. an overreaction, no. we aren't seeing an overreaction. big ben. came out with the bernanke belly flop when he inadvertently suggested that they can move the stimulus or even taper on unemployment target. went from 6.9% up to 7%. that was huge, and that's when the ripple effects and the tsunami came into the treasury pits behind me. they began selling it, and right now, sue, severe technical damage, so the treasury market, obviously 7 and above, 2.40 in the ten-year note is very difficult. equity bounced off this 100-day moving average of 15.75 which coincides with the multi-year high. a lot of people were caught offside
CNBC
Jun 20, 2013 9:00am EDT
is not only allowing inflation, but the fact that it won't come down. and now the u.s. economy has to take into account that and the move of rates and the 1.5% move in rates is a hard pill to follow. >> and scott n the last three or maybe four, the feds have come in, and they have said, i am short the 10-year and take a boatload and every year they are wrong, and perhaps now, but to this point, we are waiting for an appreciable move in rates for year and years and the fact that the economy may not stand on its own legs is curious to me. i am curious what you are hearing out there, as well, scott, in terms of the pain people are taking on the fixed income side, and those who are not short credit and obviously watching the equities sell off. >> the market, whether it is treasuries or equities, the market was probably hoping and probably against the better judgment probably that bernanke yesterday was going to sort of walk it back, and walk back the notion that they were going to mention taper org that -- tapering or going to do it any time soon and we know that the people you are talking abo
CNBC
Jun 18, 2013 1:00pm EDT
of different economies, but housing is key to the u.s. economic recovery along with jobs. how does it look to you? >> i come home from my travels i see it in my own street, that a developer bought the property opposite of us, completely overhauling the original house and building a new one right next to it, kind of noisy. sends me back in my travels again. the infliction point happened, i can tell you when it happened, whenity remortgaged and fixed, and from that moment on you've seen the tightening beginning, and this is going to be a very interesting challenge for the housing recovery as we get further indications from the fed tomorrow that there's tightening coming. that's already begun to affect mortgage rates, and if there's one thing that could cool things down it's going to be a sense that the party is over in terms of quantitative easing. >> diana, weigh in on that, you've made the very points that there may be a cooling of course, but as rates rise it may get people off the couch and into contracts. >> yeah. that's a very short-term phenomenon, and i'd be interested to hear from n
CNBC
Jun 20, 2013 4:00pm EDT
tapering i think will be symbolic. we have inflation high and i don't think to the economy is quite making it out what the fed is meant to be. i think we will see a bounce back here. >> would you say you want to buy here or wait and see if things settle out in more after wash-out? >> i would start to get money involved here. even during the run-up waiting for an opportunity to get into the market. here is an opportunity. you don't have to put everything in but it is time to move some money back into the market, cheaper valuations here. >> michael pento, how do you see it? >> first of all, mr. bernanke is a very confused man. he launched qe4 in january. january of this year. not only six months later, not even six months later, he lowers his growth forecast, takes down dramatically, his inflation outlook, and then for the first time ever, outlines a time line where he's going to get out of his quantitative easing strategy. so he surprised a lot of people on wall street and i got news for mr. bernanke. he does not control long-term interest rates and he has this economy 100% addicted to his
CNBC
Jun 17, 2013 6:00am EDT
morning to you. leaders of the world's most powerful economies are gathering in northern ireland for a two-day summit. british prime minister david cameron is the host, and he's pushing for countries to share more financial information. leaders there also expected to discuss differences on some of the big issues. syria's civil war, free trade between europe and north america and of course global tax evasion. we'll have a live report from steve sedgwick on the ground in the next hour. >>> unions in turkey, they're on a owuone-day strike over the eviction of protesters from a park in istanbul. police and protesters clashed from sporadically overnight following a weekend of scuffles in the city. nbc's richard engel will join us with the latest in the next hour. >>> also in corporate news this morning, a large activist investor in smithfield foods is pressuring the company to explore a break-up rather than go ahead with that planned $4.7 billion takeover by a chinese meat producer. i don't know if this is going to make joe happy or not, but "the wall street journal" reporting that starboard va
CNBC
Jun 19, 2013 4:00am EDT
that the outlook for the u.s. economy is still quite unclear and that would dovetail nicely with what are likely to be downward revisions to the fed's forecast for the economy. if you look at the march forecasts, they were still forecasting 2013 gdp at 2.5%. and while i don't think they will go down to the sort of level that the imf was forecasting at 1.9 last friday, down grading that forecast of gdp, downgrading their inflation forecasts to levels which they previously described as sub optimal should offer markets some reassurance that as much as bernanke will stress tapering probably is going to happen, it's a matter of when. and he won't pre-judge his options. it's not something which means immediately that interest rates are going to rise. one of the things that markets seem to have to gotten, that when the fed outlined its qe exit plan in 2011, it did actually say the first thing it would do was not raise interest rates but stop rolling off or reinvesting maturing debt. >> the other thing of course is they won't be buying any fresh stuff even when they stop. and tapering doesn't mean they
CNBC
Jun 19, 2013 6:00pm EDT
about how the economy is still a bit dicey and jobs aren't being created fast enough. now they're thinking he just wants to put everybody to work, he's not worried about the bonds. bondholders are saying to heck with this, you're not going to protect us, economy is way too strong for bernanke to keep buying bonds, he can't keep rates down, he shouldn't even try. the owners of bonds aren't as worried about the ongoing drag of the federal government that berng kooes fretting about and talked about today. they aren't worried about higher taxes, sequester spending cuts or any lack of any serious attempt by elected officials to get hiring going. they are selling their bonds right now before things get so much better that those bonds will be worth even less! to understand how bonds work i've got to do something different because i know a lot of people can't tell the difference between a stock and a bond. so i'm going to -- i'm going to do a little fictional analysis here. imagine that the united states is a publicly traded company. and it's got this really counterintuitive stock that
CNBC
Jun 17, 2013 7:00pm EDT
, but they are not focusing on the right thing which is growth, growth, growth. the european economy is in a six-quarter double dip recession. the u.s. is sub par. japan is trying to reignite, and i'm especially critical of european monetary policy which is way too tight. and speaking of monetary policy, our markets are more obsessed with it than ever. strong stock buys this afternoon, based on just one reporter from "the financial times" and his ill-advised, uninformed conjecture about what the fed would do, and then when that same reporter tweeted everybody that he really had no idea what he was talking about, well, stocks regained most of their losses. crazy story. an nsa leaker edward snowden points his finger straight at the big tech companies. they said they should resist the government's demand for user information. wrong. they should abide by all our laws, especially national security laws. all those stories and much more coming up on "the kudlow report" beginning right now. >>> let's start right away with cnbc's michelle caruso-cabrera. she is covering the g-8 summit. michelle, good eve
CNBC
Jun 17, 2013 6:00pm EDT
the economy may not be enough to draw the sim lus in fine 13. what's that mean? in 1937, when we were coming out of the great depression, the white house and congress decided things were bouncing back strong! strong enough that it was time to start closing the deficit by raising taxes and putting less financial support into the economy t. fed agreechltd hey, come on, man, it was a first class disaster. >> the house of pain! >> it turned out to be a recession within a depression. now the president and congress have raised taxes as a part of the fiscal cliff deal. they agreed to the sequester, which was supposed to cut the defend spending. it is impacting a lot of little programs the media isn't focused on. wetion heard much about it. the fact that they're at 52-week highs, makes it seem like the sequester doesn't matter at all, who cares? government just doesn't know what it's doing. that's not the point. the point is neither the president or congress is doing anything extra substantive to get it moving beyond what it's done. we have for the interstate highway to build out over ike. we have n
CNBC
Jun 17, 2013 11:00pm EDT
. then there are the people. the other one who matters, ben bernanke, he recognizes the economy may not be enough to draw the sim lus in fine 13. what's that mean? in 1937, when we were coming out of the great depression, the white house and congress decided things were bouncing back strong! strong enough that it was time to start closing the deficit by raising taxes and putting less financial support into the economy. fed agreed. hey, come on, man, it was a first class disaster. >> the house of pain! >> it turned out to be a recession within a depression. now the president and congress have raised taxes as a part of the fiscal cliff deal. they both agreed to the sequester, which was supposed to cut defense spending. it is impacting a lot of little programs the media isn't focused on. we haven't heard much about it. the fact that they're at 52-week highs, makes it seem like the sequester doesn't matter at all, who cares? government just doesn't know what it's doing. that's not the point. the point is neither the president or congress is doing anything extra, anything substantive to get it moving beyond w
CNBC
Jun 21, 2013 4:00am EDT
. and the double hit of the weak chinese economy and also the fed's tapering continue to weigh on this sector. back to you. >> thanks for that. let's recap what happened in the u.s. as well. selling off for a second day. dow, s&p 500 suffering their worst day of the year. dow down 254 points. highest one day percentage drop since last november. all 30 components down with 29 of the 30 dropping more than 1%. s&p had its worst one day percentage drop since november as well. november 2011, i should say. all ten s&p sectors were down more than 2%. 96% of the stocks listed on the benchmark index ended in the red. the vix, the markets fair gauged up more than 23% to its highest close since december. joining us for more, charles steeple, head of market strategy at lloyd's bank with us for the best part of the first hour today. good to see you. it's been described as sort of a big unwind of leverage. the thing that's striking about this, of course, actually what was the hedge yesterday that paid off? maybe if you were long in the vix. otherwise you were pretty much whammied. >> yeah. i mean, it's -- heads
CNBC
Jun 20, 2013 12:00pm EDT
of the economy that's buzzing? we'll ask the definitive voice on that suggest, ivy zelman, in a halftime exclusive. >>> mining for answers. what does china's manufacturing meltdown mean for stocks? a trader debate is ahead. >>> stocks falling hard and continuing that steep slide "today." the worst two-day drop for the dow this year. did ben bernanke kill the rally or is this the buying opportunity a lot of people have been waiting for? we're trading the fed fallout, what it all means to your money with joe terranova, josh brown, simon baker, and stephanie link. josh brown, answer that question. >> no, the rally has been killed. we haven't yet closed at a 5% connection yet but it looks like we're getting very close. what i would tell you is we've been beneath the 20-day moving average for almost a month now. so i think that rally that started from november has ended and now the only question is whether or not we're in a down trend or we're biding time until another leg up. i would tell you this is a massive carry trade unwinding. i would 234not want to be the ft one to dive in and say thi
CNBC
Jun 18, 2013 6:00am EDT
the eurozone economy, arguing that recent signs of market stabilization mean that the ecb's interest rates are becoming a more effective tool again. we'll see about that. >>> also, g-8 leaders are wrapping up a summit in northern ireland today. british prime minister david cameron has, of course, been the host. he says the goal of the group is to "fired up our economies and drive growth and prosperity around the world." we're going to have more, of course, from cnbc's steve sedgwick, who's on the ground there in that beautiful live shot in about 20 minutes. >>> meantime, time for "the global markets report." we'll go across the pond not to ireland, but to london, where ross westgate is standing by this morning amid a sea of green. a little bit of red around. how are you doing, ross? >> yeah, hey, andrew, pretty good. we're actually at the best levels of the session today here for european equities. advances out-pacing decliners by around about, what, 6-2, 7-2 on the dow jones stocks 600. it's been a mixed morning, but the ftse 100 now up 0.8%, despite the that is correct if inflation numbe
CNBC
Jun 21, 2013 9:00am EDT
the food away, and buy one lobster and get one lobster, and it is bad. darden blames the economy for people not spending at lo of money to buy the breadsticks. i don't want to hear that. >> and meanwhile, we think that the economy is improving and yesterday the numbers in a different environment most likely would have been positives for the equity market, but we are not overwhelmed by the worries of the philly fed, and numbers that most people thought were better than they thought it would be. >> and i look at the bonds and how is the 10-year, strong. okay. buy me 50,000, whatever. we are in one of the moments and if we are not looking at the bonds, you know, having fun. >> and something else that people were looking at is the chinese shibor. we don't talk about it a lot. >> right, something that can jump up to bite you. >> and the rate has come down overnight, and they are trying to tighten up the money supply, and tighten it up, and the corporate inflows are not as strong as they might have originally been for china, but all part of the plan in a way of 300 million people, and 15 years to
CNBC
Jun 18, 2013 4:00pm EDT
'll give the economy before it decides to reduce the monthly asset purchases. to me, the market has kind of adjusted its own expectations both for the worse and better, much more than the fed's message has changed. so i feel like it's really a lot of suspension been drained out of this meeting. by the way, the market itself, the treasury yields have calmed down. >> all right. amy, let me ask you in terms of allocating capital. where are you seeing the flow right now in terms of putting money to work? where is the conviction out there? what sector? >> well, hi, maria. from an options perspective, it's pretty interesting, because i think a lot of folks out there would say the fed's probably not going to say too much tomorrow. it may delay things out later. our own house view is for an october tapering session. however, from the options point of view, you've actually seen short-term term structure come up. so to translate that, that's basically saying near term, more volatility is expected relative to the outer terms. so the options market is actually expecting something for tomorrow, and y
CNBC
Jun 21, 2013 12:00pm EDT
can do well. that's indicative of a better economy, a faster growing recovery happening. if rates back up very severely like we have been seeing over the last month, that's problematic in my view. that's volatility in my view. but overall the bond market needs to stabilize. when that happens i think the markets will and we can focus on earnings. if the economy continues to recover, corporate profits will recover mikofecover miking the attractive. defensives have been hammered again. you have to keep an eye out for some of these quality companies. those are on the radar screen. we're too early. >> jeffrey gundlach was on the show and said he didn't expect to hit 2.r50% on the ten-year note, today it did. gundlach e-mailing me when i asked him why are we seeing such a violent move. higher yields leads to fear-based selling leads to the street stepping back leads to fear-based selling and around and around it goes. doc, is this the way it's going to be for a while? >> it is in a way. but i agree with stephanie and stephen and jeff gundlach, who when he said it here on our show just the ot
CNBC
Jun 17, 2013 3:00pm EDT
,000 a month. the economy is not accelerating, and the fed has said clearly since january, they will taper when they see a substantial improvement in the jobs market, and i don't think they've seen it yet, especially with an uptick in unemployment growth. >> yet you do see a rise this year. >> absolutely, the april employment report over the course of the month of may, unemployment yields went up 20 basis points, and it wasn't just isolated to treasury yields. it's very real and it will have an effect on the economy, especially if the trend continues. >> if you are seeing an anticipation of the rates moving higher, mark, jump in here, because already you're seeing insurance companies, utilities, those companies that may benefit from higher rates actually get on the move here. so is that the train you want to get on, or do you want to stay with those dividend payers that have been working? >> i still think we prefer the dividend payers, because in this environment, the fed isn't going to adjust its underlying interest rate policy likely for a year, possibly two years or month. as a consequence,
CNBC
Jun 17, 2013 9:00am EDT
people have looked at the economy and said, wait a minute, we're not nearly to the point where the fed can take its foot off the gas. but if you look at their forecast for not only this year, but even moving forward, they are a little bit ahead of where consensus is and that's key to what they. >> 2.6. i want to see loan growth. you don't have new splurge in housing, obviously, because the people are kind of caught up by the rates. but, yes, the stocks that acted well last week, i used again mills and bristol meyers, imminent recession in 8 to 12 months. they bottomed. you don't want to see that. in other words, this is the fed step as way and people believe that there's nothing there. i'd like to think the fed stays in, until we get more than one month of good loan growth. >> to that point, you are talking about my multiple stocks there. they had something to be taken out of them given what were, what multiples -- >> 18, 20. >> higher than some of the peers in the biotechnology sphere which is hard to believe because they're going at a good rate faster. >> i don't want to get caught i
CNBC
Jun 18, 2013 4:00am EDT
on the economy but signaled this in no way means rates will go up. that led to a bit of a swoon in stocks during the session yesterday. the dow gave up more than 100 points. robin harding, who wrote the article, then took to twitter to tell everyone to chill out. he later defended his piece on cnbc's "fast money." >> the fed has a one-week blackout during which it doesn't say anything to anybody. so, people need to react to the content of the story rather than the existence of the story. and what i've seen happening today, and i think we saw it happening last week, too, is the market was reacting as if there's some secret bat signal coded here. >> asked if the article was timed for the greatest market impact, harding says he has nothing to do with that, that "the ft" sends out pieces when they write them. i mentioned mr. draghi as well. he says the ecb is looking at negative to positive rates with an open mind and with all intended consequences, rates becoming more effective. again, another measure we looked at on the considered possibility of having a break on deposit facilities, speaking in je
CNBC
Jun 19, 2013 6:00am EDT
about the underlying economy. >> it's the economico outlook. >> you don't think he'll use the word? >> i don't think he'll use the letter. >> people will ask questions. >> but as long as -- as long as it doesn't start with a t. if there is a t in the world somewhere, he may use it. >> we could have a drinking game. first question has to be about tapering. will use the word taper. >> either tape ever or your ter. >> i was at a party with a drinking game, but it was with lemonade. makes no sense. they're practicing for the day when -- legmonade, you'll just get sick. >> that's okay. learn a lesson. >> i know. >> let's take a look at europe. again, futures are indicated higher and that may be because the expectation is that the fed will in fact slightly lower their economic outlook. if that he another case, you would expect they would not be pulling qe anytime soon. but right now the market is barely bunching in europe. in asia, you can see the nikkei was up about 1.8%. so volatility continues there. hang seng down by just over 1%. oil prices right now are indicated up about 50 cents. wti i
CNBC
Jun 20, 2013 6:00pm EDT
tag term relative because nothing really went up today. how about technology, when the economy is going south, they cut back. they don't buy, they let it lay follow. that's because they can't prove. no one can prove, listen, i get this new computer in it will make us more money. it's too ethereal. you can bring more revenue dollars down to the bottom line when you cut back on spending. you got to compete with the other guys, all of a sudden you need more hoard ware, you need more software. you got to expand t. earnings go higher. that's why so many of the other drive and semi conductors were at their 52-week highs today. it would help if business around the world would get better, too. can come in time. if you stay tuned, i will tell you which of the texts work soon. finally, there's the industrials. it is true many of these companies have done quite well. they haven't done well the way we want them to. they have cloen grown sales, they have fired, cut back, laid off to the bone. so whatever dollars have brought in flow to the bottom line, even if the dollars aren't rising very
CNBC
Jun 21, 2013 3:00pm EDT
pulls the jumper cables off the drained battery that's been the economy, a healthy financial sector could be good, needed, and essential for a sustainable economic recovery. >> you mentioned oracle, nick. a lot of people were looking at oracle and saying this is evidence that global growth is slow. so what did you see in the oracle numbers? >> when we look at the numbers for all of the companies, things that are still tied into the emerging markets -- >> i see. >> -- the emerging economies are still struggling the most. when we collect all of the economic data, it's saying come home to the u.s. and so, some of the defensive sectors, the financials as well, we still like best some of the trends. not utilities, but telecom we like. when it comes to certain technology sectors and materials, energy, industrials, you know, these emerging economies, there's some scary things going on, particularly with the short-end rates in china. >> and the outflows prove it. >> yeah, rick santelli, how much higher on the 10-year yield, do you think in. >> i wish i could tell you. if this was a normal m
CNBC
Jun 17, 2013 4:00pm EDT
. the economy is mediocre at best, but even having said all that, that stocks have raced ahead of some of the weakness in the high yield bond market, to me i think still one of the best features of stocks when i talk to individual, and importantly, investors there are still a misuse of stocks when companies are generating an 8% return on equity, and if we get that 10% correction, just grind your way through it, fight your way through it and buy what you thought was too expense ive tod. >> that's an interesting point, because on the feds tapering, that's basically what people are trying to navigate around. rick santelli, give us your sense of what we hear out of bernanke tomorrow and wednesday? >> you can't get hd quality picture on a 1953 philco tv. that's the way i look at it. the markets are looking for answers to an exit strategy that can't be had. some people blame communications. i don't blame communications. i think these programs in their triggers for an exit and the relationships that the fed is trying to fine-tune with this rate of unemployment, this degree of growth in the ec
CNBC
Jun 18, 2013 3:00pm EDT
situation, but not so much about the economy, the broader economy, and their own country or the world. my question for janet is, the surprising thing to me about this report is that north america and the developed countries are actually back on top when it comes to wealth creation. if you look at china, you look at brazil, russia, the developing, emerging markets, which are supposed to be the new thing when it came to the world of wealth, and they're really secondary now. did we all get too bullish when it came to wealth creation in emerging markets? >> i think we're looking at short-term patterns here. the belief is when we look at asia-pacific, some of the developing economies, they will probably be back on top in the near term. particularly asia-pacific, which we think will have the fastest growth rate to 2015 where we think world wealth will be -- find net worth over 55 trillion. think about the volatility in the marks. in 2010, 2011, and think about what the u.s. markets did and, quite frankly, u.s. real estate. so it's really not a surprise. we flip-flopped a little bit in 2012 with
CNBC
Jun 18, 2013 9:00am EDT
. >> and if we can be freed from some of the regulatory burdens, this economy could take off, and so will the stock market. >> thank you, sir. join us tomorrow. "squawk on the street" begins right now. >>> good morning and welcome the "squawk on the street." i'm david faber with jim cramer and scott right here. carl quintanilla is off this morning, and afterf a 100-point rally, the fed is under the microscope as it begins, you know it, a two-day meeting. the futures are holding onto the gains and consumer prices up one point in may, and housing starts rose above street forecast, but we are looking for a higher open. >> yes. >> and a actually more defensive. looking at europe, a mixed picture, and you can see it on the continent there, but a lot of green on the map. start with our own road map starting with day one of the fed meeting as the market swings over almost any mention on the word of the word taper. president obama hints that ben bernanke could be on his way out. scott? >> and david, here is sony activist dan loeb asking for a second time to spin off the entertainment arm. th
CNBC
Jun 17, 2013 12:00pm EDT
is clear, rates are going to stay low for a very long time and when they do taper, that means the economy is getting better and they can handle it. i don't think we're there yet. i think we're at 2% gdp. >> senior economics reporter steve liesman is here with what the fed is likely to do. most importantly, what the fed is likely to say, steven. what it all is going to mean to your money and the markets, what are you expecting? >> i don't know if i agree with joe that we're going to get a kind of fresh bullish signal. i think inflation could be acknowledged as a problem. i just don't know that we're going to get more of a kind of, we're going to be continuing on the -- i think the fed is trying to figure out. i think bernanke is going to play it neutral. i did like my wife did she likes to make lists, i made lists on would it taper, would it not taper. let's look at the to taper idea. one idea would be to take some of the steam out of the stocks that the fed is concerned there may be too much leverage in equities. making the exit easier obviously the less it buys. the third one is probably
CNBC
Jun 18, 2013 6:00pm EDT
for the stock market and the economy, they're trapped like rats. especially after today's rally. they can't afford to have this market stay higher. they're underinvested. they haven't made the money they should have! so they have to make themselves right with the napalm attack. the bears will be visible to all. their negatively will be up by the media as though it's the truth about what the fed actually said. the bears will hope that the situation will then become self-fulfilling as the tape action determines the narrative and they set the agenda. why wouldn't they? why not try to define the event? after all, who wouldn't believe the fed is causing trouble or the market is in trouble if the futures take everything down instantly. it's death defying, come in and buy. that's why at first, it will look like no stocks will have survived the onslaught tomorrow but 2:30. then a little while after, maybe by 3:15 some stocks will climb out of the b-52, but not all. some may never get out. mostly the real estate investment trust and the high yielding bond equivalents they might be buried alive. ki
CNBC
Jun 17, 2013 4:00am EDT
the economy offset these gains in some of the financial sectors. shrugging off weakness in the mainland, property place outperformed hong kong helping the hang seng gain 1.2% today. the sector rebounded for the second session after very sharp selloffs recently. so we may be seeing some bargain hunting here. and elsewhere in australia, banking shares helped at the sx 200 reversed earlier losses ending higher by 0.7%. but under pressure, down 0.3%. and some of the southeast asian markets also trading in the green at the moment. back to you, ross. >> all right, catch you later. joining me in the studio, co-ceo of wells fargo financial services. american stocks down three out of the last four, this after good gains this year. is sentiment going to be shifting around now over the next few months as we question the fed and japan? >> undoubtedly we'll continue to see a lot of volatility. just look at this morning. we have the nikkei up 2.75%. today we have the futures up in the u.s. about 1% and within europe, about 0.75%. and i think we'll continue to see that. the question about japan is, do
CNBC
Jun 14, 2013 11:00pm EDT
weakness, and that's a weakness that will remind us that the actual economy doesn't support much higher interest rates like we had overnight, even though, ultimately, i know they will go higher. see, but this is what's been so unreal about this whole run-up in rates that's caused the stock market to get hit -- it hasn't been justified by the data. and i think monday, we will find it still isn't. thank heavens for bernanke, because if he had listened to the endless chattering hawks in the fed, i know we'd get a hideous number. all the numbers would be hideous. it's just always worth reminding, worth reminding everyone that bernanke's done amazing work, even as all i ever hear is that he's over his head or this must end badly. have you looked around at the world's other economies? we're doing better than everyone else on the globe, in part because our chief executive officers have done an excellent job in a global slowdown, but also because of exactly what bernanke's doing. this bond program has probably allowed you and other americans refi their home and companies fix their balance sheet
CNBC
Jun 15, 2013 4:00am EDT
to show weakness, and that's a weakness that will remind us that the actual economy doesn't support much higher interest rates like we had overnight, even though, ultimately, i know they will go higher. see, but this is what's been so unreal about this whole run-up in rates that's caused the stock market to get hit -- it hasn't been justified by the data. and i think monday, we will find it still isn't. thank heavens for bernanke, because if he had listened to the endless chattering hawks in the fed, i know we'd get a hideous number. all the numbers would be hideous. it's just always worth reminding, worth reminding everyone that bernanke's done amazing work, even as all i ever hear is that he's over his head or this must end badly. have you looked around at the world's other economies? we're doing better than everyone else on the globe, in part because our chief executive officers have done an excellent job in a global slowdown, but also because of exactly what bernanke's doing. this bond program has probably allowed you and other americans refi their home and companies fix their balanc
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